Elimination qualifying is gone ? but Q2 may still be quiet | 2016 F1 season

The first two qualifying sessions of the year were overshadowed by the row over elimination qualifying. Yesterday the unpopular format was put back in its box and Saturday will see the return of the familiar system used until the end of last season.

Romain Grosjean, Haas, Bahrain International Circuit, 2016Haas knew the value of starting on new tyresAmid the furore of criticism over the format another subtle but significant consequence of F1?s 2016 rules was widely overlooked. But not by everyone: Haas exploited it brilliantly in Bahrain to capture a fine fifth place for Romain Grosjean.

A quirk of the rules means a valuable strategic benefit can be gained by narrowly missing the cut-off point for Q3. The potential advantage is so great that Grosjean began celebrating in Bahrain when Nico Hulkenberg beat his qualifying time in Q2.

Since 2014, drivers who reach Q3 have to start the race on the tyres they used in Q2. The remaining drivers have a free choice, and for obvious reasons have almost always chosen to start the race on a fresh set of tyres. This gives them more grip immediately at the start of the race and means they can run a longer first stint.

The benefit of being able to start on newer tyres has increased this year. This is because of new tyre rules which have resulted in softer compounds being allocated.

Bahrain Grand Prix

Positions gained or lost over the course of the race:

Grid Position gain
6th -3
7th -1
8th -7
9th +4
10th +4

Most drivers started the opening races on super-soft tyres. Therefore the drivers who reached Q3 and have to start the race on used tyre are at a greater disadvantage, as the three-lap they did on the rubber in Q2 took away a greater proportion of the tyre?s life.

That gives a desirable strategic advantage to the drivers closest behind them at the start on new tyres. And it explain?s Grosjean?s perverse delight at being out-qualified by Hulkenberg in Bahrain.

This was the first race of the year where race strategies played out as intended, without the interference of a mid-race interruption. When the chequered flag fell, the drivers from the lower reaches of Q3 had all lost places, and those from the front of the Q2 pack had moved up (see table).

?In Bahrain we were very happy not to be in Q3,? confirmed Haas team principal Guenther Steiner, because it allowed us to start the race on a brand new set of tyres.?

?With brand new tyres, you see a lot more grip on the start. Both drivers took that to their advantage and had very good starts.?

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, Shanghai International Circuit, 2015Shanghai will punish the tyres more than Bahrain didAt this weekend?s race in China the benefit of starting on fresh tyres will be even greater. The track has more long corners than Bahrain which will put the super-soft rubber under much greater strain.

The Shanghai International Circuit is a classic example of a ?front limited? track. The front-left tyre in particular takes a pounding around the long first corner and again at turn 13.

Mercedes therefore expect very short opening stints for the drivers on used rubber.

?It?s the first time we?ll see the super soft compound used at this track, thanks to the new regulations,? explained Mercedes? executive director for technical Paddy Lowe. ?That will likely create a more extreme example of what we saw in Bahrain, where the best qualifying tyre is unlikely to be a great race tyre.?

?Every team is bound to want to qualify on the super soft ? but if it grains in the race, we could see cars stopping in the first five laps.?

One of the objections to elimination qualifying was the lack of running at the end of each phase of qualifying. But don?t be surprised if we see a quiet conclusion to Q2 again, if for somewhat different reasons: some who don?t make the cut for Q3 might not want to get there.

NB. In Australia and Bahrain there were eight drivers in Q3. From China this will revert to ten as per last year?s rules.

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